Charles McConnell is the executive director of UH’s Center for Carbon Management in Energy. His 40-year energy industry background includes serving as an assistant secretary of energy with the U.S. Department of Energy, vice president of carbon management at Battelle Energy Technology, and vice president of energy and hydrogen and other roles with Praxair Inc. McConnell is a board member of the Energy & Environmental Research Center Foundation and MAC Copper Ltd. 

Shifting policies under political change

The future of energy-related policies largely depends on politics and the geographic areas where such policies would have the most impact. The Trump administration’s intent to exit the Paris Climate Accord is already shaping expectations, but impacts will vary, and that is where the nuances lie.

In the electric power market, federal support for wind and solar is expected to decline, with reduced subsidies, investment tax credit cuts, and tariffs on Chinese solar products increasing costs and slowing deployment. Conversely, nuclear energy will gain support for technological advancement, market integration and pathways to more broad commercialization.

Coal does not compete with natural gas-fired power units in the United States and is unlikely to make a comeback in our country. Globally, however, coal will continue to grow — and U.S. coal exports along with it.

Natural gas is set to take an expanded role in electricity generation due to the need for significant growth in dispatchable 24/7 generation, and carbon capture utilization and storage will strategically accompany such generation for economic benefits through enhanced oil recovery as a CO2 emissions solution. Liquified natural gas is expected to flourish to enhance global energy security, increase our export balance of trade and position LNG as a geopolitical and economic tool.

Inflation Reduction Act-related spending will have varying levels of support. An example is the hydrogen hubs that are facing significant headwinds due to a lack of market demand and cost to produce. Energy security, reliability and cost will be the primary drivers.

Projects and the related community engagement will be driven by accelerated permitting and the development of skilled and capable workforces to not only construct, but produce with American-made products and skills.

Finally, discussions about cross-border carbon tariffs and pressure on China and the EU for carbon dioxide reductions prior to 2030 may be interlinked with trade agreements. What is clear is that the United States will not be funding global climate efforts for other countries and creating economic headwinds for our industries.

Joseph B. Powell, a member of the National Academy of Engineering, is the founding executive director of the UH Energy Transition Institute. He served as Shell’s first Chief Scientist – Chemical Engineering from 2006 to 2020, culminating in a 36-year industry career where he led research and development in new chemical processes, biofuels and enhanced oil recovery, and advised on global strategy.

Pivoting investments and research

Research programs should address expanding economic access to energy and critical materials. Natural hydrogen and geothermal energy research can potentially leverage learnings from unconventional oil and gas production. Wind and solar remain low-cost options for instantaneous power. Their market potential can be further leveraged through research into advanced materials for energy storage, making use of new computational methods for low-cost materials discovery, including artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Computational methods can also reduce the costs of technology demonstrations and scale up. Expansion of these capabilities will help the United States remain a leader in the marketing of energy technology, whether deployed domestically or abroad.

New pathways to extract and recycle materials for energy and chemicals can reduce environmental burdens and potentially provide lower-cost feedstocks while also offering access to critical materials necessary for U.S. economic growth.

Technology development to reduce costs to American and/or global consumers will continue to be an attractive investment, regardless of variations and durability of global policy incentives. In the end, those technologies that provide the lowest cost and best environmental performance will be advantaged.