Psychology Researchers Help Improve Space City Weather’s Flood Forecast Scale

With five million visitors a year, the Space City Weather blog, created by meteorologists and journalists Matt Lanza and Eric Berger, and sponsored by Reliant, has become the Gulf Coast’s trusted source for forecasting daily rain to warning of life-threatening floods. The site has become well known for its Space City Weather Flood Scale, which the team created in response to flood events between 2015 and 2019. It’s a robust tool that adds context to certain events, with real language that readers can visualize, like “hundreds of homes may flood,” or “freeway frontage roads may become impassable.”

Still, Lanza was unsure if any seasonal hurricane forecast, even with enhanced language, offered enough value to the public that they would take real action, and he bemoaned the fact in 2022 with this tweet:

Luckily one of Space City Weather’s biggest fans is University of Houston Professor of Psychology Steven Paul Woods, who was intrigued by the post and responded that his lab could help answer the weather literacy enigma.

“My lab does work on how people access, understand and use health information, so I thought we could adapt some of that ongoing work and our expertise in psychological science to answer questions about weather communication, and help keep Houstonians informed and safe,” said Woods.

Woods discussed it with one of his doctoral students, Natalie C. Ridgely, and she jumped on board, even making the project the subject of her dissertation. Spoiler alert: she’s a PhD now.

For the experiments, the UH team recruited 100 residents of the Gulf Coast and presented them with weather forecasts of varying severities. One group reviewed the Space City Weather Flood Scale, and one reviewed an enhanced scale with examples of weather-protective behaviors at each level of flood risk (e.g., Stage 1 = Consider reducing time on the roads; Stage 3 = Fuel vehicles; Stage 5 = Identify safe evacuation routes).

And did it work?

“In brief, yes! People in the weather-protective cue group did a better job of planning for the storms,” said Woods. “We were able to improve flood-protective plans for the people who were at greatest risk of being unprepared.”

“Frankly, it feels great to be able to expand the Space City Weather Flood Scale to help people take action,” said Lanza. “One of my biggest concerns about the scale was that we came up with it ourselves, which is fine in a vacuum. But as a scientist, I wanted us to make sure we were pushing out something that was adding value to storm prep, not adding confusion. Does it pass the test of being meaningful and scientifically sound? And who better to help solidify that than an expert in psychology?”

Hurricane season, which began June 1, storms through until Nov 30, 2025. Read the Space City Weather blog here and see the scale here.

NEW SPACE CITY WEATHER FLOOD SCALE

Street flooding possible

Expect mostly minor impacts including frontage roads and low-lying streets.

Be aware of potential impacts, but most mobility should be unaffected for long periods.

Flash flooding

Some locations may see significant impacts (e.g., closed freeway lanes and flooded streets). Most of the region is fine.

Exercise extra caution while on streets and highways, and never drive into flooded roadways.

Significant flash flooding

Flooding is more widespread, of longer duration and may impact rush hour. Hundreds of homes may flood.

Closely monitor Radar and National Weather Service warning areas. Consider canceling plans or staying home.

Significant regional flooding

Widespread, significant flooding in the Houston region. The city may be effectively shut down for a day. Thousands of homes may flood.

Remain at home as wall modes of travel are likely to be disrupted. Prepare for the possibility of water in your home

Historic regional flooding

Tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of homes may flood. The city and suburbs may be effectively closed for days. Reserved for Hurricane Harvey-like floods.

Follow official emergency orders and be prepared to shelter in place for multiple days. Have a plan for fast-rising waters (e.g., escaping to a higher floor or to the roof.